WTO Lifts 2026 Global Merchandise Trade Growth Projection to 3.9%

Key facts

• The World Trade Organization (WTO) raised its 2026 global merchandise trade growth forecast to 3.9% from 1.9% projected in March, citing trade resilience despite the West Asia conflict.
• The WTO expects global merchandise trade volume to grow 4.1% in 2027, after 3.5% growth in the first half of 2026.
• West Asia crude oil exports fell about 24% and LNG exports 47%, but increased shipments from other suppliers limited the decline in global exports to around 6% for crude and 1% for LNG.
• AI-enabling goods such as semiconductors and servers accounted for 47% of global merchandise trade growth in the first half of 2026, with trade in these products rising 67% year-on-year.
• The WTO cut its 2026 commercial services trade growth forecast to 3.3% from 4.8%, projecting a rebound to 6.4% in 2027.
• West Asia merchandise exports are forecast to fall 17.2% in 2026 and services exports to contract 10.3%, while Asia is expected to lead merchandise export growth at 9.9%.
• Global container throughput rose 3.9% through July, and digitally delivered services remained resilient, with computer services exports rising 18% in the first quarter and an estimated 12% in the second.