UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2026 projects worse global warming, citing US Paris exit and rising emissions

Key facts

• The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) released the 'Emissions Gap Report 2026: The Point of Return', warning that global warming could worsen beyond earlier projections due to the United States' withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement and revised estimates of historical emissions.
• Even if all Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) are delivered and similar efforts continue, global temperatures could rise by 2.6 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by 2100, which is two-tenths of a degree higher than last year's projection.
• If current policies continue, warming could reach 2.8 degrees Celsius within this century and increase thereafter; even in the most optimistic scenario with all NDCs plus additional net-zero targets achieved, warming would only be limited to 2.1 degrees Celsius.
• The report finds the United States recorded the largest increase in greenhouse gas emissions among the world's 20 major economies last year, with emissions rising by 133 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent, driven by higher electricity demand and increased coal-fired power generation.
• The US policy shift is estimated to add one-tenth of a degree Celsius to global temperatures by the end of the century.
• The report examines a 'lowest possible' 1.5 degrees Celsius overshoot scenario, in which peak warming by around mid-century is limited to 1.7-1.8 degrees Celsius and temperatures return to or below 1.5 degrees Celsius by 2100 with a 50% chance; every five years of CO2 emissions at current levels pushes peak warming up by around 0.1 degrees Celsius.
• To stay on the most optimum 1.7-1.8 degrees Celsius pathway, global greenhouse gas emissions must fall by 18% by 2030, 45% by 2035 and 69% by 2040, all relative to 2025 levels, whereas full NDC implementation would cut emissions only 5-8% by 2030 and 11-15% by 2035 relative to 2025 levels.
• The lowest possible 1.5 degrees Celsius overshoot scenario would require removing roughly 320 gigatonnes of CO2 from the atmosphere and permanently storing it over the century, equivalent to around eight years of 2024's global CO2 emissions.
• The report was released ahead of COP31 in Turkey next month, and the UN warned that the world is falling short of the Paris Agreement's goal of limiting warming to well below two degrees Celsius, preferably 1.5 degrees.
• UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called for urgent action, while UN Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell said renewables are now the cheapest source of new electricity in most of the world and solar power deployment has grown seven times faster than expected a decade ago.