IMD declares withdrawal of southwest monsoon nationwide as northeast monsoon sets in over south India

Key facts

• The India Meteorological Department (IMD) announced that the southwest monsoon withdrew from the entire country on Thursday, October 15, 2026, with northeast monsoon rainfall commencing over parts of south India the same day.
• Northeast monsoon activity was witnessed in Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Karaikal, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, south interior Karnataka, Kerala and Mahe.
• The IMD forecast a wet spell with isolated heavy rainfall over many parts of south peninsular India till October 21.
• This year's southwest monsoon ended with 759.4 mm of rainfall, 12.6 per cent below the normal of 868.6 mm.
• The rainfall deficit has been attributed to El Nino conditions over the tropical Pacific, which emerged in June 2026 and have been strengthening since.
• The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has forecast that this year's El Nino is likely to peak in December 2026 and could become the strongest since observations began in 1950, with conditions expected to persist through February 2027.
• The southwest monsoon is active from June to September and is crucial for the kharif crop cycle, while the northeast monsoon, also called the retreating monsoon, affects India from October to December and is significant for rabi crops.