Super El Nino may cause 15,800 extra heat deaths in India: EPIC co-author explains methodology

Key facts

• A University of Chicago Energy Policy Institute report projects a 'super El Nino' could cause around 15,800 additional heat-related deaths in India over the next six months.
• Co-author Emily Grover-Kopec, director at the climate and energy practice at Rhodium Group, said the estimate used seasonal temperature forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF SEAS5) and peer-reviewed temperature-mortality relationships.
• The temperature-mortality relationships were published in the Quarterly Journal of Economics in November 2022.
• The report projects the climate phenomenon could push global land temperatures 1.2 degrees Celsius above normal in the coming months, resembling temperatures climate change is projected to deliver in the next 20 years.
• The report used a 30-year baseline period of 1996-2025, which is common and often considered best practice in climate science.
• The ECMWF SEAS forecast sits in the middle among available seasonal forecasts in terms of projected temperature anomalies, presenting a relatively moderate view.
• Abhiyant Tiwari, who leads the climate resilience and health team at Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC) in India, said the study is a useful early warning but its mortality estimates should be treated cautiously as model-based projections, with the full methodology yet to undergo peer review.
• Harshal Ramesh Salve, a public health professional and faculty at the All India Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS), stressed mitigation strategies such as implementing Heat Action Plans (HAPs) at all levels, data-driven policy making, and developing data-sharing mechanisms at national and local levels.