S&P Global Ratings Lifts India FY27 GDP Growth Projection to 7%, Sees RBI Rate Hike

Key facts

• S&P Global Ratings raised India's GDP growth forecast for FY27 (fiscal year ending March 31, 2027) to 7 per cent from 6.6 per cent earlier, citing robust industrial activity, healthy consumption, strong goods exports and accelerating government investment.
• S&P expects the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to hike its policy rate by 25 basis points in FY27, with consumer inflation estimated to average 5.1 per cent in the fiscal year.
• India's economy grew 7.8 per cent in the June quarter and also grew 7.8 per cent in the previous fiscal year 2025-26.
• The 7 per cent FY27 growth estimate compares with the RBI's projection of 6.7 per cent and Fitch Ratings' projection of 6.4 per cent.
• Moody's also raised India's GDP growth forecast for the fiscal to 7 per cent, the fastest among all G20 economies.
• Cumulative rainfall was 15 per cent below normal till September 9, 2026, making agricultural output and food inflation key variables to watch.