Fitch Ratings Lifts India FY27 GDP Growth Forecast to 6.9% and Sees RBI Rate Hike

Key facts

• Fitch Ratings raised India's FY27 GDP growth forecast to 6.9% from 6.4%, citing stronger-than-expected economic activity and resilience despite the US-Iran war shock.
• India's GDP growth accelerated to 8.6% year-on-year in 1Q26 (4QFY26) from 7.7% in 4Q25, against Fitch's expectation of a slowdown.
• Fitch expects private investment to rise by more than 10%, with non-food credit growth reaching 19% year-on-year in July.
• Fitch expects the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to raise the policy rate by 25 basis points to 5.5% in October, followed by an increase to 5.75% in early 2027 and easing to 5.5% in 2028.
• Fitch projects the dollar-rupee rate at 95 by end-2026, 98 by end-2027 and 99 by end-2028.
• Fitch raised its 2026 global growth forecast to 2.6% from 2.4%.
• S&P Global Ratings and Moody's Ratings have each projected India's FY27 GDP growth at 7%, while government data show the economy grew 7.8% in the April-June quarter.