India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) raises India's FY27 GDP growth forecast to 6.8%

Key facts

• India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) raised India's FY27 real GDP growth forecast to 6.8% from 6.7%.
• The upward revision was attributed to lower crude oil prices, with the baseline assumption cut to $85 per barrel from $95.
• Ind-Ra flagged El Niño weather pattern and geopolitical risks, including the West Asia conflict, as downside risks to growth.
• The agency projected agriculture GVA growth to slow to 2% in FY27 from 3% in FY26.
• Wholesale price index (WPI) inflation is projected to rise sharply to 8.5% in FY27 from 0.4% in FY26.
• Consumer price index (CPI) inflation is forecast to average 4.9% in FY27, peaking at 5.9% in Q3FY27.
• Private consumption expenditure is expected to grow 7.2% in FY27, slower than 7.7% in FY26.
• Current account deficit (CAD) is projected to widen to 1.5% of GDP in FY27 from 0.6% in FY26.
• Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) is projected to grow 8% in FY27.
• Ind-Ra expects the central government to stick to its fiscal deficit target of 4.3% of GDP.